Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-24 34.526369 37.364903 40.488273 44.212112 48.574697 53.580508 59.844857
2025-08-31 31.591053 35.396896 39.859888 45.588002 52.916526 62.244581 75.509918
2025-09-07 28.859394 32.982742 38.000919 44.738793 53.865119 66.347878 85.906069
2025-09-14 26.818817 31.101210 36.459745 43.909798 54.474088 69.830117 96.105415
2025-09-21 24.776267 29.004332 34.391604 42.057873 53.276750 70.309599 101.469171
2025-09-28 23.588986 27.893858 33.487250 41.653071 54.035387 73.815663 113.122148
2025-10-05 23.569281 28.283975 34.589589 44.159533 59.504122 86.165315 147.665310
2025-10-12 22.644136 27.386134 33.827035 43.812094 60.335608 90.515498 167.245244
2025-10-19 22.083780 26.942842 33.659172 44.329014 62.656705 98.255946 201.383120
2025-10-26 21.818841 26.883640 34.025290 45.698296 66.666593 110.685643 264.209926
2025-11-02 21.262859 26.376690 33.687654 45.879635 68.503016 118.899588 325.490079
2025-11-09 20.253880 25.174395 32.237279 44.085212 66.284310 116.645227 334.518177
2025-11-16 19.241469 24.038183 30.995754 42.849255 65.639302 119.977819 395.681372
2025-11-23 18.892563 23.849383 31.195823 44.125500 70.411585 140.674843 706.696182
2025-11-30 18.127236 22.996473 30.287795 43.325142 70.583255 148.046162 1022.777246
2025-12-07 17.436551 22.216692 29.440176 42.540644 70.641129 155.309091 1630.906808
2025-12-14 16.604162 21.186331 28.131469 40.786480 68.165863 152.346790 1929.768817
2025-12-21 16.110267 20.645043 27.581205 40.402640 68.890044 162.321651 5128.063304
2025-12-28 16.177854 20.956264 28.434513 42.776988 76.981599 212.463298 NaN
2026-01-04 15.747934 20.477656 27.940756 42.448189 77.986373 230.328875 NaN
2026-01-11 15.487845 20.251045 27.857007 42.937339 81.400214 268.906716 NaN
2026-01-18 15.372744 20.245081 28.147259 44.231946 87.600368 345.918340 NaN
2026-01-25 15.087873 19.955034 27.922875 44.403274 90.424076 407.034929 NaN